What does a supercomputer predict? Croatian threats of droughts and droughts of drinking water

The Mediterranean Pool is one of the most vulnerable areas of climate change that is happening globally. Croatia as a Mediterranean country must therefore be prepared in time to adapt to those changes that will have a great impact on the way of life in this area. What will be the consequences of climate change in Croatia and how it can respond to the Climate Change Adjustment Strategy for the period up to 2040 with a view to 2070, presented last week

Večernji list .

Climate modeling was developed by the end of 2070 on supercomputer VELEbit, worth 521,145 euros. Less precipitation VELEbit projected the future state of the atmosphere for the whole of Croatia with climate models. According to Dr Vladimir Kalinski's project team leader, the supercomputer calculated that by 2070, as compared to the period from 1971 to 2000, the average annual precipitation rate would be in a further downward trend of up to five percent in almost all of Croatia. In this case the precipitation will be lower in all seasons, and the number of dry days will increase. There will be less snow, and there will be a reduction of surface runoff throughout Croatia. The average air temperature will increase from 1.5 to 2.2 Celsius in all seasons and throughout Croatia.

The number of hot days, with a maximum temperature above 30 degrees Celsius, will be greater than 12 days in relation to the reference period. The number of warm nights with a temperature above 20 degrees will also increase. Air humidity will increase throughout the year, while the humidity will decrease. The middle sea level will rise by the end of this century by 32 to 54 centimeters. And these changes will lead to reductions, for example, the amount of water in watercourses and springs, water reservoirs in the underground as well as water levels in lakes will be reduced. But this will increase the incidence and intensity of floods and floods. In agriculture, there will be a greater need for water for irrigation due to frequent droughts, and frequent flooding will reduce or completely destroy yields. The frequency of forest fires will increase, even in the continental part of the country. For instance, fishing will increase the number of foreign species due to rising sea temperatures.

Climate change will reduce electricity production in hydro power plants by reducing flow and drought, and will increase its consumption due to increased air temperature. Due to high temperatures, increasing UV radiation and increasing the incidence of extreme weather conditions the coast will be less attractive to tourists, but will increase the tourist attractiveness of the interior of the country. The warm climate will increase the mortality of the population and will lead to a change in the epidemiology of acute infectious diseases

Healthy water will often be unavailable for a long time. There will be an epidemic and a pandemic due to the impact of climate change on the way the disease is transmitted. The thermal islands will be created in the settlements due to the increase in the number of hot days, and settlements will threaten the floods due to higher precipitation and precipitation intensity in the short term. In coastal urban areas will face floods due to extreme rainfall and rising sea levels. We are going to spend 3.68 billion euros for adaptation To adapt to climate change, the Strategy has proposed 82 measures such as the construction of reservoirs for irrigation, strengthening of fire protection capacity, enhancing aquaculture capacity by breeding new species of fish

Some of the proposed measures include capacity building and the provision of an incentive legal framework for increasing the capacity of renewable energy sources and distributed sources and strengthening the resistance of tourism infrastructure at different timesframes. And in the next 52 years Croatia would have to invest EUR 3.68 billion in adaptation to climate change. Of this amount, only 0.23 percent will go from the state budget, and all the rest from the EU funds. The first action plan will be implemented from 2019 to 2023 and its total cost is 5.8 billion kuna, writes Večernji list .

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